The end of the Oil industry, as we know it.
We have probably heard several times what carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels is doing to our environment, and how Earth could become inhabitable by the end of the century, thanks to climate change and global rise in temperatures. But have you ever imagined, where this human civilization would be without the discovery of oil. The Industrial Revolution which brought about astronomical advancements in the global economy and technology, was in its heart, driven by Coal and Oil primarily. Europe which was at the helm of the Industrial Revolution, saw a great boost in its economy, infrastructure, transportation etc.
One of the primary reasons behind World War II, was accessing control over oil fields. You see, even the residues like gasoline, formed after the refining of Crude oil turned out to be a great fuel for automobiles. No doubt Oil was categorized under the banner of “Black Gold”, back then. Hundreds of refineries were installed, which in turn created thousands of jobs. The Petroleum sector and its impact on economy’s had undoubtedly pulled millions out of poverty. But all of these progress and advancements came at a price.
The after effects of the Oil age
Within a decade or two, oil usage’s around the world had grown exponentially. We needed oil for almost everything, in industries for operating machines, in cars and planes for transportation, for cooking, for generating electricity etc. By the mid 20th century scientists around the world, were already concluding that burning of fossil fuels can cause greenhouse effect, which in turn harms the environment. Presidents and Global Leaders are made aware of the situation, but to no avail. On the other hand, the Oil industry was booming, with more of the modern world increasing its dependency on oil. Nigeria, a poor country in Africa, struck gold, as a company named Shell-BP (British Company) found oil in the Niger Delta at Oloibiri. A country which was primarily based on an agricultural economy, quickly rose the ranks to become the richest in Africa.
Despite several research papers and warnings from scientists around the world, climate change hardly received any limelight from the general public. People from that generation might argue that in a Century, which had already seen two world-wars, people were more afraid and concerned about their present and recent future than the distant future. Also the 20th century was the “Century of Discoveries”, newly wealthy nations were simply enjoying the age of modernization and technology. Things stayed the same for the next few decades. Until the pipe bomb dropped!
The Hansen report
On June 23, 1988 Dr. James Hansen, then director of NASA’s Institute for Space Studies, stated a landmark testimony before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. He stated that “Global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming…In my opinion, the greenhouse effect has been detected. And it is changing our climate now.”
The Hansen report along with record heat and droughts in U.S shook the country’s media into action. The New York Times published headlines covering the Hansen report.
PM Thatcher speaks
1988, Toronto Conference, then UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in her speech warned that levels of CO2 were increasing alarmingly in our atmosphere. If not controlled, would have ill effects that would be more fundamental and more widespread in the future.
IPCC
1988 was the year, when for the first time an independent and intergovernmental body by the name IPCC was formed. IPCC stood for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC’s function was to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options. People who participated in IPCC were just not scientists, but also people linked to national laboratories, meteorological offices, and science agencies like NASA, ESA etc.
Since then, majority of countries have addressed to issues like global warming and climate change more hastily. Climate agreements and treaties, where countries have promised to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by the mid 21st century. Investments in other forms of energy like renewable energy, has increased exponentially. Electric cars are getting cheaper by the year, accessing Solar energy has also become cheap, thanks to China. Alternative sources like Bio-Fuels and Liquid Hydrogen (used for rockets) are also subject to speculations.
Despite Reforms, the Oil industry has kept booming
The last three decades have all been about reforms, restrictions, alternative ways to counter the carbon emissions. As mentioned above a large chunk of money is now being invested in renewable sources of energy. And the countries leading the chart are mainly European, Russia, China and the United States. But despite of all these measures, the Oil industry has kept booming and expanding to such extents, that companies which hold the most stake in Oil industries are expected to increase their productions even more by 2030. You heard it, the Oil industry is still expanding. But if wealthy countries are trying to reduce dependency on Oil, by implementing various measures, how on earth is the Oil industry still expanding?
The world witnessed, how the Industrial Revolution turned out to be the game changer for the whole of Europe. How the Europe transformed its economy, its standards of living and per capita income is no secret. Wealthy countries reaped the benefits of Oil and Coal for centuries, to place them in the position, they are today. The developing world is now looking for its energy sources, sources which would propel them to the upper tier. And unfortunately, the Oil industry remains to be the major source of energy for modern day technology. Additionally the next gen renewable sources of energy are expensive to access for developing worlds in Africa, Asia and South-America.
Hypocrisy of the Developed Nations
The onus of the maximum carbon emissions now bestows on the developing countries. Countries in south-east Asia, Africa and South America are facing pressure to meet their emission limits, as they continue to fight issues like poverty, unemployment and energy crisis. One primary reason for the consistent growth of the oil industry has been rapid investments from wealthy countries. While there has been a global rise of investments in the renewable sector, it still accounts to only 1% of the total investments. The rest 99% of money goes to the oil industries, mostly by countries like U.S, U.K, and China.
Leapfrog
There is an ongoing rant for the developing countries to leapfrog from their current energy sources (oil and coal) to modern renewable sources. The argument in itself is fair, considering the present global warming situation. Even, the developing world are pretty much eager to get into the action, but they have a hurdle to cross. As mentioned earlier, renewable energy sources require huge investments, a privilege the developing world doesn’t have. Hence, it is only fair that the countries which have exploited the fossil resources the most, invest in poorer countries for clean energy. But this is exactly what happened in the Paris Climate Agreement. Rich countries vowed to invest a $100 billion annually for laying the infrastructure for clean energy in the developing world. But investments never came, as major countries pulled out of the Paris Agreement.
The Future of Oil
Nigeria, once the richest African state is now the poorest in the region, with one of the lowest life expectancies and high poverty rates. Remember the British Company which found oil in the country? For years they exploited the oil reserves and finally when the country found its independence, its corrupted leaders gobbled up the majority of the oil revenues. The country now suffers major energy crisis, with cities not having access to proper electricity. There are many more African states which are facing the same fate. South-East Asian countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh face the same issues. High Population and a Developing Economy doesn’t allow these countries to suddenly transform their century old dependency on fossil fuels.
The oil industry is all set to grow even larger by 2050. But so will the clean energy market, which remains to be the only glimmer of hope. Major investments would be required to transform the developing world’s energy requirement, that to from clean energy. Battery technology and other advancements would also have to get stronger, in order to cater the global energy demands. Solar technologies would need to be cheaper and more readily accessible. But all of this may take some time, a liberty our species doesn’t have.
The entire process can surely be accelerated, but remember asking the whole species to transform to clean energy in just 30 years, where fossil fuels have dominated the last two centuries, is easier said than done. And until we reach that period, oil and only oil would be the primary energy source of this planet. Considering, the present scenario the oil industry is all set to remain for a long, long time.
The Principal author of the blog Just Logically Speaking, Susanta Ray is an enthusiast for information and learning. He thrives in subjects related to Modern Technology, Science, History, Space, Finance and Global Affairs.
If you liked what you saw, and want to read more contents from this author, Hop into his own blog at the following link : justlogicallyspeaking.in